Adaptation of a population to a changing environment in the light of quasi-stationarity

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Publication:6119938

DOI10.1017/APR.2023.28arXiv1903.10165MaRDI QIDQ6119938

Aurélien Velleret

Publication date: 20 February 2024

Published in: Advances in Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We analyze the long-term stability of a stochastic model designed to illustrate the adaptation of a population to variation in its environment. A piecewise-deterministic process modeling adaptation is coupled to a Feller logistic diffusion modeling population size. As the individual features in the population become further away from the optimal ones, the growth rate declines, making population extinction more likely. Assuming that the environment changes deterministically and steadily in a constant direction, we obtain the existence and uniqueness of the quasi-stationary distribution, the associated survival capacity and the Q-process. Our approach also provides several exponential convergence results (in total variation for the measures). From this synthetic information, we can characterize the efficiency of internal adaptation (i.e. population turnover from mutant invasions). When the latter is lacking, there is still stability, but because of the high level of population extinction. Therefore, such a characterization must be based on specific features of this quasi-ergodic regime.


Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.10165





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